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A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."