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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.